Is the Steam New Releases Sale Becoming a Mixed Bag?

This week, the first Steam New Releases Sale of 2026 came to a close.

The New Releases Festival is perhaps the most accessible promotional event for indie game developers today, offering them the easiest way to reach core players. It first debuted in late 2019 as the “Steam Game Festival” and was renamed the “Steam New Releases Festival” in 2021. Its original purpose was simple: to help indie developers gain visibility within Steam’s vast library of games and ensure that carefully crafted demos reach players who are genuinely interested.

Six years on, the landscape of this platform has changed beyond recognition. According to indieNova, this year’s event featured 3,457 new titles—a staggering 51% increase from the previous year.But even more noteworthy than the sheer volume are the structural shifts: In Valve’s official popularity rankings, the top spot was claimed by Bungie’s *Marathon* through a “Server Slam” stress test—strictly speaking, it wasn’t even a traditional demo—which reached a peak of 143,000 concurrent players. On the wishlist rankings, products from major and mid-sized studios dominated the top spots.

One industry insider bluntly stated that for the three core rankings of the New Releases Festival—total wishlist entries, increase in wishlist entries, and number of players of the demo version—“90% of indie games have no chance of making the list without extensive external promotion.”

At the same time, nearly 20,000 new games are set to launch on Steam in 2025. According to estimates by the third-party data platform Gamalytic, more than half of these games will generate less than $1,000 in revenue. For indie games hoping to gain organic traction through launch events, the challenge is now far greater than it was just a few years ago.

But that doesn’t mean the New Releases event has lost its significance. Several developers and publishers we interviewed shared a consistent view: the New Releases event remains one of the most important opportunities for exposure among all Steam events, and it’s still a rare chance for indie games. It’s just that its value is shifting from being a “gateway to overnight fame” to a “stress test to prove one’s viability.”

Some have admitted, “It’s not that the New Product Festival is less helpful; it’s just that marketing costs have risen significantly.” Others have taken a more pragmatic view, pointing out that the true value of the New Product Festival lies in bringing market validation forward: “You only need to run a 90-minute test to get real player feedback. Data may be cold, but it doesn’t lie.”

So, what does the New Releases Festival actually mean for indie game developers today? Is it still a “battleground” worth fighting tooth and nail for, or has it become nothing more than a showcase for major studios? Or perhaps its true value lies somewhere in between?

This week, the Tea House invited developers and publishers of indie games, as well as industry observers, to share their honest insights based on their personal experiences.

▍Zero Creation Games, Ji Ling

This year, we encountered a unique situation. During the New Releases event, *Aihong: Ten Days of the Fall of the City* was listed but did not appear in the event due to some bugs, and consequently received no traffic. According to our Steam dashboard, traffic from the event during the first two days accounted for less than 1% of our total traffic. The issue was resolved midway through the event via a Steam support ticket, but by then it was too late due to the algorithm’s mechanics.

Many media outlets and streamers didn’t include us in their coverage of this New Releases Festival, but even so, the number of wishlists and the trial play rate during the event continued to rise—a departure from the norm. The trend peaked around February 28 and began to decline on March 2.When we were preparing for the release of *Aihong*, as the launch date approached, I still felt a bit uneasy even though we had already accumulated twice as many wishlist entries as we had for *Eshu* prior to its release.

Since *Aihong* never sparked the kind of widespread, cross-platform discussion and controversy over a single setting that *Eshu* did before its release, I began to wonder if *Aihong*’s subject matter was a bit too niche. I was also surprised that people didn’t seem to pay nearly as much attention to the “sacking of the city” as they did to the “cannibalism” in *Eshu* at the time.

But this time, over the past few days, there’s finally been widespread debate. Although the situation is slightly different from *Hungry Ghosts*—with slightly more people expressing skepticism—judging by the recent growth in wishlists, demo play data, and pre-order trends, I think many people are genuinely interested in some of *Ai Hong*’s mechanics. In fact, when I compared the trends around *Hungry Ghosts*’ launch with those of *Ai Hong*, they were strikingly similar. Of course, all this talk is pointless.

Even though this New Releases Sale featured a large number of games and coincided with the launch of major titles, unexpected circumstances led to lower traffic than the previous event. However, in terms of exposure alone, the New Releases Sale still generated the most visibility among all Steam sales events.

So, what I’m trying to say is that the fundamental principle for Zero Creation’s survival and growth is, above all, to create excellent works and distribute them through various channels to the people who need them.

“Production” is far more important than “distribution.”

Of course, the New Arrivals Festival is still a rare opportunity for independent developers—if you can participate, you should; it’s not something to be missed.

▍Operated by WiseGames: Sword Rain Blood

The New Arrivals Sale is useful, but not as useful as it used to be.

The New Releases event remains an excellent opportunity for organic exposure; any game can receive additional exposure from Steam itself, but that’s about it. Currently, the New Releases event has very limited impact on domestic indie games.

In the current market landscape, major titles and online multiplayer games participating in the New Releases Festival are becoming increasingly numerous and have essentially taken the lead.

The three rankings for the New Arrivals Festival are sorted based on the following criteria:

(1) Total number of wishlists (2) Increase in wishlists over a period of time (3) Number of players of the demo version

With so many major titles on the market, the Top 10 list has largely left indie games behind; the top spots in this New Releases Festival are clearly dominated by titles from major publishers (Capcom’s *Monster Hunter Stories* and *Identity V* alone have secured two spots).

Chart 2 is the one where independent developers have the best chance of making an appearance. Since the rankings change in real time, there is theoretically an opportunity to break into the top spots if there is a sudden surge in players at a given moment—such as a concentrated wave of content from key opinion leaders (KOLs) or a specific feature of the game going viral. However, such opportunities are fleeting; for the most part, the top spots on Chart 2 remain firmly occupied by major titles and online multiplayer games.

In terms of game genres, online multiplayer games hold a clear advantage. Unless a single-player game offers vastly superior quality or exceptionally outstanding core gameplay, most indie single-player titles are unlikely to outperform online multiplayer games.

As the rankings show, 90% of indie games would never make it onto the New Releases chart without significant external marketing and promotion; in fact, they might not even appear on the chart for a very long time.

Do casual gamers—especially busy domestic players—really scroll through the leaderboard dozens of times just to check out the games listed at the bottom when they want to try a new game? Obviously not.

The bottom line is that the New Releases Festival offers very limited benefits to most indie games. If you choose to invest in marketing and promotion, you’ll be competing against hundreds or even thousands of major titles and a handful of truly innovative, groundbreaking games. If you don’t invest in marketing and promotion, it’s just another ordinary game festival that offers a bit more organic exposure.

▍Serenity Forge 政宗

When it comes to the New Product Festival, the first thing that comes to mind is “how the role of demos—or trial versions—has evolved in the gaming industry over the years.”

Many years ago, the term "demo" was almost exclusively associated with smaller-scale games; after all, having another way for players to experience a game is still very important.For big-budget titles from major companies, releasing a demo was practically newsworthy. Remember how you had to buy *Final Fantasy Type-0 HD* just to play the *Final Fantasy XV* demo right away? And the prologue to *Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain*, *Ground Zeroes*, was priced at $30… It’s hard to imagine what kind of backlash a publisher would face if they tried something like that today.

Since then, as the industry has evolved (1,000 words omitted here), the result is clear: even top-tier hit games now release demos. Coupled with the strong rise of "2A" games in recent years, a new niche has emerged between traditional "3A" titles and indie games.

Returning to the New Releases Festival itself, I believe Steam’s original intention in creating this event was to provide more exposure opportunities for indie games (although the first edition was held in collaboration with the TGA, registration was soon opened to general developers). However, for the reasons mentioned above, with the entry of major and mid-sized developers, the space left for true indie games has been significantly squeezed.So regarding this issue, my take is that while the event is certainly not as helpful to indie games as it used to be, it still serves a purpose. You should still participate, but there’s no real need to release a demo during or right before the New Releases Festival—you can just pick an auspicious day to launch the demo first.

As for when to participate in the New Product Festival:

If the goal is to build hype for the game—especially as the release date approaches—wishlists tend to be longer at this time, and the game is more likely to be favored by the algorithm during the New Releases Festival. Furthermore, data shows that wishlists added closer to the release date are more likely to convert into launch sales;

If you're looking for a publisher, it's best to get involved early on. After all, getting on board sooner allows publishers to better plan their overall marketing and promotion strategy. Generally, during the New Game Festival, publishers will conduct a round of intensive testing on new games based on their own selection criteria.

So, ultimately, it’s up to developers to make plans based on their own needs.

▍The Way of the Cat: 3,000

First, let’s talk about whether the Steam New Releases Sale still holds any value for indie games these days.

Since our game was first released in December 2022, the Steam New Releases event was essentially the only major channel available for indie games to gain exposure at that time.

In fact, many games even adjust their launch dates specifically to coincide with the New Releases Festival, which underscores just how important the event is. The data shows that the New Releases Festival is also one of the platform’s events that generates wishlist additions the fastest. While it’s usually very difficult for a game to gain wishlist entries, during the New Releases Festival, some games see their wishlist counts increase by tens of thousands.

Unfortunately, once our game goes live on EA, it will no longer be eligible for the New Releases Festival, even after the official release—which is a bit of a shame.

Getting back to the question at hand, I believe this initiative is worthwhile. Independent game studios should seize every opportunity to gain exposure. Since we don’t have the funds to invest in paid traffic, it’s even more important for us to make the most of these relatively equitable resources.

Steam hosts many events throughout the year, but most of them simply offer discounts on a wide range of excellent titles to attract some traffic. The New Releases event is different; it’s specifically designed to provide exposure for new games. No matter how Steam’s rules may change in the future, it will always need to provide exposure opportunities for “new games,” and that is the very purpose of the New Releases event.

So, does the New Arrivals Festival offer much less help to independent developers than it used to?

I’m not really in a position to say for sure, since our studio hasn’t participated in the New Product Festival in recent years.

However, from a player’s perspective, there will indeed be significant changes. Players are now more focused on which games are worth playing during this period, and are less willing to spend time trying out titles that might turn out to be duds. In the past, Steam’s New Releases sales, combined with certain social media platforms in China, often resulted in a few breakout hits emerging from each event.

However, due to the current economic climate, the platform is facing some challenges, and content creators (UP owners) are under even greater pressure.

As a result, the weight given to recommendations and sharing for non-commercial content will decrease significantly. This also makes it harder for games that might otherwise have had a chance to go viral to gain sufficient organic exposure.

Sometimes this situation arises: "You know it’s a good game, but videos posted by regular players get no views; content creators, in order to make a living, have no choice but to prioritize promoting games with commercial value."

So I actually think it’s not that the New Product Festival is less helpful to indie games, but rather that, given the current climate, marketing costs have risen significantly compared to the past.

▍Domestic Game Sales Chart: Minghuo

In the past, people thought Steam’s New Releases Sale offered good deals because the benefits were still there. But things are different now. With the explosive growth in the number of games, this public resource has been severely oversaturated, leading to “wishlist inflation” and turning the sale into something resembling a “battle royale.”

The most obvious thing you’ll notice is that during the event, top-tier streamers with even a modest following have their schedules completely booked with sponsored content. If you reach out too late or don’t offer a high enough budget, you won’t even get a spot—and getting a product placement in their stream will be next to impossible.

Let’s skip the old data and focus on the current market trends. Based on recent insights into project marketing efforts and discussions with industry peers, a game of decent quality will likely generate only about 1,000 wishlist entries during the New Product Festival if you go completely “bare” and don’t invest in any marketing resources.

But if you’re willing to spend money—say, 20,000 to 30,000 yuan—you can currently generate around 5,000 wishlist additions. Let’s break down the numbers: that works out to a customer acquisition cost of between 4 and 6 yuan per wishlist addition.

Wishlists created during a New Arrivals Sale, which attract a massive influx of traffic, will inevitably have a much lower conversion rate than those resulting from targeted searches.

Even if we use a conservative estimate of a 10% conversion rate and factor in the platform’s 30% commission, what does that mean? It means you’d have to set the price of your game at over 57 yuan just to barely break even on the customer acquisition cost for this single wishlist. In the future, for a game to gain mainstream visibility, it will inevitably rely more heavily on various distribution channels, posing even greater challenges for both game development and publishing.

Zhihu User: This is a feature, not a bug.

Every time the New Releases event kicks off, thousands of new games flood in.

Some say it’s both the gateway to success for a select few indie games and the graveyard for the vast majority of them. However, I think it’s more accurate to call it the “euthanasia” of most new indie games.

First, in *Principles of Economics*, there is a core concept known as sunk costs. For developers, there is something even more terrifying than having no players during a new product launch event: spending two years developing a game in isolation, only to see single-digit sales in the first week after launch.

This is every indie game developer’s worst nightmare: pouring your heart and soul into a project, investing all your time and effort, only to discover that players don’t like the core gameplay at all.

The New Product Festival is an opportunity to bring this validation process forward. All you need to do is create a 30-minute prototype to get feedback from real players. Data may be cold, but it doesn’t lie. If you only have a few hundred downloads and the average playtime is just five minutes, that’s essentially a death sentence.

Although the process and mechanism may seem harsh, they can save you a year of fruitless development down the line. Cutting your losses early is, in itself, a form of success. If you think about it rationally, “cutting your losses” at this stage actually prevents an even greater tragedy in the future.

Second, developers of recommendation algorithms often complain that a small number of top games capture 90% of the traffic. However, this actually aligns with the "80/20 rule"—and even the more extreme "long tail theory." The logic behind the algorithm is very simple and straightforward: it only recommends games that are fun to play. Valve's algorithm doesn't play favorites; it looks solely at conversion rates and retention.

So-called "traffic favoritism" is essentially an amplified version of players voting with their feet. If a game fails to retain players during its initial wave of random exposure, forcing traffic onto it will only expose more people to just how boring it is. This undermines the store’s ecosystem and wastes players’ time. In a way, the algorithm’s decision to bury these games is actually protecting players. After all, as players, we don’t want to spend New Releases Week trying out dozens of games only to find they’re all unplayable trash.

Third, how to survive. For most developers, the New Product Festival isn’t about becoming an overnight sensation—it’s about proving they can survive. Can they get 1,000 wishlist adds? Can they build a reputation among core players? It’s like a massive, free, global stress test.

The one that leaps over the Dragon Gate is Jackie Chan’s lucky carp. If you can’t make the leap, leaving early or changing direction is also a good way to make the most of your youth. So regardless of the outcome of the New Product Festival, it’s a great opportunity to test the waters.

If the progress of the game you're developing is on track, try not to miss out on this opportunity.

"Game Tea Roundtable" is a Q&A series jointly launched by Game Tea House and Zhihu. Each week, we’ll discuss various topics with industry professionals, and we welcome you to share your thoughts in the comments section.